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What next for Ukraine?

  Flak999 23:27 23 Feb 2014
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Yanukovych has gone, the same way most dictators go, either like this or like this What now for Ukraine? this?

If Putin decides to send the tanks in, where do we in the west stand?

Osborne has apparently promised Ukraine that the UK has it's cheque book ready! (what about the deficit?)

Troubled times ahead methinks!

  Flak999 16:01 02 Mar 2014

It's about as subtle as a brick, Russian forces have seized all of the important buildings in Crimea the fibre optic cable between Crimea and Kiev has been cut. Ukrainian forces in Crimea have been disarmed the Ukrainian naval headquarters is surrounded and Russian troops are digging in on the border between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine.

As johndrew stated, it is almost exactly what the Germans did in 1938 in annexing the Sudetenland on a pretext of protecting Sudeten Germans, and we all know how that little border incursion ended up, don't we?

Putin is playing for high stakes, he is banking on the west doing much harrumphing and bluster but basically doing nothing. He is gambling that we will let Ukraine go the same way as Georgia.

He had better hope we won't get involved militarily, because if we do, here comes WW3.

  Forum Editor 16:55 02 Mar 2014

"He had better hope we won't get involved militarily, because if we do, here comes WW3."

That's overly dramatic nonsense, and it will not happen.

There's a good deal of posturing going on; Russians look to Putin to play the strong man, they need him to do that so they can regain a degree of their damaged national pride, so he duly obliges them. The Russian people do not want any form of armed combat however - like people everywhere they want their government to act tough as long as it doesn't mean body-bags being flown home.

This is a serious situation, but it is a country mile away from being the kind of thing that would precipitate a World war. Tanks will rumble, supply lines will be cut, millions of words of rhetoric will be spouted, and at the end of it all Putin will have downgraded the status of the Russian nation in the eyes of the world.

  bremner 18:00 02 Mar 2014

Russia can do whatever they like as they know full well and good that the West cannot and will not do anything militarily. Millions of words of course will be expounded by western politicians to make it look like they are doing something.

The pointless UN has no hope as Russia as a permenant member of the security council can veto any move they make.

  sunnystaines 18:11 02 Mar 2014

I think the next flash point is if the ukraine army pick a fight with the russian army that is in crimea bases.

  Flak999 18:22 02 Mar 2014

"I suspect that after pressure Crimea will revert to Russian control and break from Ukraine."

So basically Russia can just tear up agreements it has made, proving once again what a toothless talking shop the UN is.

Here we are in the first quarter of the 21st century, and we are seeing all the same mistakes of the 20th century played out again. If this is allowed to stand, Putin proves might is right and thuggish armed aggression wins over diplomacy.

  johndrew 18:42 02 Mar 2014

Given the promises made by Russia on all types of scenarios which cover everything from human rights to trade to guarantees of neutrality and the fact that Russia along with the USA, France and the UK guaranteed Ukraine's independence, how much credibility can we give any word/promise given on any subject now?

The fact that Russian Spetsnaz(?) forces have surrounded Ukraine military establishments, and disarmed some, indicates to me an unprovoked incursion into the function of a sovereign state - possibly a little like the second attack on Iraq instigated Bush and Blair. I feel the similarity to the 1938 scenario is very close but hope that no conflict such as that caused then results.

Putin may feel he needs to be seen as strong (what KGB officer doesn't/didn't) but if he overplays his hand here Cuba will only have been a practice round for the real thing.

  john bunyan 19:56 02 Mar 2014

If Crimea has another referendum and votes to go independent of Ukraine, who are we to judge , we who organised a referendum for Ireland and , shortly, one for Scotland? I seem to recall, also, that the USA itself declared UDI.A referendum, however would be a two edged sword for Putin, as he would not, I suspect allow one where he thought the vote would go against him.

All this is ill timed; it will be so disappointing if the para Olympic games are boycotted. A great worry for all in the region,but, as spider9 says, there is little we can do about it.

  Flak999 23:36 02 Mar 2014

The trouble is, whatever solution is reached, whatever grandiose treaties signed, whatever platitudes mouthed by the Russians, we now know that their word cannot be trusted on anything!

How can you deal with a country and a government that will sign legally binding agreements, enter into solemn treaties, promise to abide by the accepted norms of international relations when it suits them, and then when it doesn't, tear up said agreements and impose their will by the use of military force?

How do you deal with that!..... Accept it?

If that is the case what price international diplomacy and the rule of law? We might as well abolish the UN, spend our GDP on enormous armies and impose our will by the use of force!

  john bunyan 08:37 03 Mar 2014

"impose their will by the use of military force"

Although I understand your frustration, what about Grenada, Iraq etc where the USA has done the same? Who elected the "New" government of the Ukraine? I do not like this whole scenario but it is not a black and white issue.

Scotland may well decide to leave the UK in the same way as many in the Crimea wish to do. It is a great tragedy for all those that live there, as will no doubt be seen over the next days and weeks.

  johndrew 10:28 03 Mar 2014

It was that very thuggish aggression that led to the overthrow of a democratically elected president in Ukraine.

Also the Tsar in Russia in 1918.

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