Is war between the west and Iran inevitable?

  Flak999 22:26 04 Dec 2011
Locked

Storm clouds are gathering in the east! Once again it seems inevitable that the west will soon become embroiled in another foreign adventure. Following the sacking last week of the British embassy in Tehran and the closure of the Iranian embassy in London, we seem set upon the inevitable path of conflict with another middle eastern state.

The turmoil that has beset this region continues unabated, it seems from the latest polls that the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt will be the largest party. The upheaval in Syria grows day by day, Assad warned the west "be careful what you wish for." The Arab spring is taking us down the much feared road to Armageddon.

Following the report from the IAEA which pointed to the likelihood of a military application of Iran's nuclear program, we are led to the only possible conclusion, that Israel with the covert or as seems more likely the overt support of the USA will strike Iran's nuclear facilities to stop the development of Iran's nuclear weapons.

Where will this leave us in Britain? We are a firm ally of the US and it would seem likely that we will be drawn into the conflict. How many millions of pounds and how many hundreds possibly thousands of British lives will we have to commit to this perhaps the last of our foreign expeditions?

The retaliation of the Iranians will be to close the straits of Hormuz to the transit of western oil imports, oil prices will rise to astronomical levels and our already fragile economies will implode. Iranian state sponsored terrorism will be visited upon our western cities, is this the beginning of the end game between the west and militant Islam?

  Flak999 23:05 04 Dec 2011

badgery

Sorry, but it's difficult to see anything to be optimistic about with this one!

  Forum Editor 23:16 04 Dec 2011

"The Arab spring is taking us down the much feared road to Armageddon."

Actually, it's probably taking us down the road to a new era of relationships with new democracies. Nothing will happen overnight, and no doubt the process will bring with it the inevitable round of power vacuum disputes, but in the end there will be a new group of strong, independent democratic countries. Your dramatic doom and gloom scenario isn't going to result in our downfall.

Iran is unlikely to be able to develop a nuclear weapon for at least a couple of years, if it decides to develop one at all, so there's no immediate need to panic just yet. According to the latest IAEA report, Iran has produced over 4,500 kilos of 3.5% Low Enriched Uranium, of which about 70 kilos has been further enriched to 20%. That's about 17% of the amount needed to make a first nuclear weapon. The entire stockpile of 3.5% LEU is probably enough for at least two weapons if it's enriched further. 

Taking a worst case scenario, Iran could probably make a single nuclear weapon in about two years if the government allocated the project a top priority. That gives the west a negotiation window, and we should strain every diplomatic muscle in the attempt.

Talk of British military involvement in an Iran conflict is ridiculously premature.

  lotvic 23:25 04 Dec 2011

Thank goodness 'tis the season of goodwill.

  Flak999 23:37 04 Dec 2011

Forum Editor

Talk of British military involvement in an Iran conflict is ridiculously premature.

I wish I had your capacity for foresight! However I think that the Israeli's under Netanyahu are following a different timescale. The Iranians are going through their own internal power struggle, but Ahmadinejad is without doubt a competitor to take on the mantel left by Hitler as the most deranged but dangerous megalomaniac the world has seen for seventy years.

We, all of us underestimate him and the Iranian Islamists at our peril!

  daz60 09:16 05 Dec 2011

Ratcheting up the pressure by using incendiary language is all part of the diplomatic merry go round that is the Middle East.There are some who wish to settle old scores and actively encourage a war, they should be considered as "deranged" as Ahmadinejad.

Iran and the West have been at war for years more often by using proxies rather than head to head. At some stage, now that the USA has acquired Iraq in all but name, the likelihood of some kind of military action is possible but the ramifications would be catastrophic for everyone concerned.

Interesting how Brzezinski stated that Iran would have to "fly over our airspace",a reference to Iraq/Afghanistan as if either had no say on the matter.

  Flak999 09:42 05 Dec 2011

daz60

Interesting how Brzezinski stated that Iran would have to "fly over our airspace",a reference to Iraq/Afghanistan as if either had no say on the matter.

I think you mean Israel would have to fly over Iraq? I to was struck by his use of these words. "Our airspace" obviously the Iraq's have no say in the matter!

  johndrew 10:16 05 Dec 2011

It is interesting that now Iran has both a very dangerous individual and potentially the ability to do severe harm to the world, we rapidly forget that, as with many other countries, we were instrumental in the 'regime change' there as well.

History indicates that all countries progress though their own development which includes such as civil war and various forms of government - we did it in the UK and may well have more changes to come. In some countries the development takes longer and is more violent than in others, however, if left alone it tends to remain confined within borders - not always true as Nazi Germany proved. There is also a tendency for outside interference to make things much worse within the country concerned and to export the problems one way or another.

As a result of the 'help' given to Iran when it was going through change, it could be that those involved have inadvertently made the situation worse.

  flycatcher1 15:07 05 Dec 2011

We invaded Iran, called Persia then, in the Second World War and made preparations to do so again in 1951. I do hope that cool heads prevent another foreign adventure which could result in disaster in the Middle and Near East.

  john bunyan 16:55 05 Dec 2011

the hick. Rocket propelled, I thonk See here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MassiveOrdnancePenetrator#Specifications

  john bunyan 16:57 05 Dec 2011

Sorry, try here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MassiveOrdnancePenetrator

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