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Is this a radical way to end lockdown?

  john bunyan 06:47 04 Apr 2020
Answered

A professor at the London School of Tropical Medicine has suggested that as the lockdown is causing so much mental and economic damage , that in the absence of a vaccine or cure , that only herd immunity will work.

A return to work and school would mean that it would truly mean the survival of the fittest.

Many of us here would be lost but most of the young would survive and maybe thrive. Is there any other way?

herd immunity

  john bunyan 06:59 04 Apr 2020

What happen after 3 months?

Italy etc

Another bit of gloom - where’s the good news?

  QuizMan 22:28 04 Apr 2020

Well I suppose it might solve the housing problem. That was not intended to be taken seriously, btw. For many years I lived near to Down House where Darwin lived. When I read about this "nutty" professor, it sounded a bit Darwinian to me - survival of the fittest. I rather hope that we live in more enlightened and compassionate times these days.

  john bunyan 22:44 04 Apr 2020

Maybe Dom Cummings told him what to say!

  Forum Editor 23:03 04 Apr 2020

We may well achieve herd immunity over time, but as I understand it that would be when around 80% of us have either been infected and have recovered, or have acquired immunity by vaccine.

In the process there would be many deaths.

  john bunyan 07:21 05 Apr 2020

Just staying on a harsh and maybe totally unacceptable suggested course of action that a dictator with no empathy might adopt. 1. Build and commission regional “fever hospitals “ designed only for coronavirus patients. 2. On a regional basis allow a return to work etc. 3. On the basis of 80% of the 67million or about 57 million getting it , and, in turn 1% dying , about 570,000 would die. 4. A very high proportion of these would be . like me, over 70 or with underlying medical issues. 5. The numbers are about double the normal ones and by phasing could be dealt with. 6. After a year a full resumption could take place, big savings on not paying pensions on most of the dead. and a population largely immune.

I hope that none of the above comes to pass of course, but from a strictly economic point of view and being utterly ruthless, it is a possible if horrific scenario

  Dunk 07:26 05 Apr 2020

FE

Sincerely hope you didn't 'proof read' your post!!! ".....would be when around 805 of us have either been infected....."

  john bunyan 07:44 05 Apr 2020

Pretty sure he meant 80% !!

  wee eddie 08:52 05 Apr 2020

JB: Well said. I hadn't got the nerve to post such thoughts.

There is, currently, a confidence that we will be able to develop a Vaccine for COVID-19. What if the development takes several years. Then herd immunity will be the only option, but that relies on each person becoming immune, for a period of months/years, after they have recovered from the Virus.

What if this is not the case?

What if we don't become immune or that immunity only lasts a few months?

  john bunyan 09:13 05 Apr 2020

*Wee eddie *

Serious worries indeed.The 1918 pandemic cost 50 million lives world wide. Let’s hope and pray for a vaccine and other ameliorates will be developed in record time.

Then Trump and others will try to hog supplies of them . It’s bad enough in UK but potentially catastrophic for India, Africa and many others.

  Forum Editor 12:46 05 Apr 2020

Dunk

Thanks - I was rushing, and didn't hit the shift key - corrected now.

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