It doesn't look too good for Vista

  Forum Editor 23:16 22 Dec 2006

does it?

As I write this 202 people have responded to our forum poll about Vista, and only 17 of them are going to migrate when it launches. If that was to be reflected on a global scale Vista would become the most resounding software flop of all time as far as Microsoft is concerned.

I don't think that's going to be the case however, and it will be interesting to see what really happens. When Windows XP was about to launch there was a considerable anti-XP feeling in many of our forum threads - lots and lots of people said they wouldn't upgrade under any circumstances, and that they were perfectly happy with Windows 98. What actually happened was that Win XP sold like the proverbial hot cakes, and huge numbers of people quickly realised it was far better than Win98, or indeed any other operating system on the market. It's been an unqualified success in fact.

I believe the same thing will happen with Vista, although I think the uptake will be slighly slower than was the case with Win XP. It's just my opinion however, and I may turn out to be horribly wrong - we'll know soon enough now.

  powerless 23:33 22 Dec 2006

Yup, I agree uptake will be slower!

  DrScott 23:36 22 Dec 2006

that many users will probably see Vista as an opportunity to upgrade their machine, and by that I mean go out and buy a new one.

What would be interesting is how many people actually buy an upgrade of XP for Vista, rather than just getting a new PC with it pre-installed?

  Forum Editor 23:45 22 Dec 2006

The uptake will initially be helped along by the fact that all new computers sold after launch date will automatically have Vista installed by default.

What generally fuels the migration rate is the positive feedback coming from those who have bought new machines, plus those who simply buy the latest new thing anyway - the industry calls them the early adopters. Microsoft knows that by far the most effective marketing tool is the satisfied consumer who talks about it. People who currently swear they won't migrate will do so in droves, once they see positive feedback from their peers. That's why the first few months are so critical as far as Microsoft is concerned - they want happy Vista users telling the world about it, so the world takes the plunge.

  LastChip 23:46 22 Dec 2006

the numbers are almost false.

Now, before you try and crucify me, let me explain.

I've never seen published a breakdown of "retail" (that is all flavours sold via retailers) v those supplied by OEM's.

All I've ever seen is total figures. It is a forgone conclusion that the main OEM's will ship pre-installed Vista as soon as they can. So how do you determine what is OEM and what is ACTUAL retail sales? In addition, consumers have no choice. Go to PC World (or any other main stream dealer) and ask for a computer without an operating system - or even an alternative operating system. They'll look at you as though you've gone mad!

Having said that, I'm not at all surprised at your post headline.

Certainly for the UK, I think Microsoft have got their pricing terribly wrong. It's simply too much money, particularly, as XP is working so well for many people. And perhaps that's the real crunch. XP with service pack 2, is a respectable system and providing you take reasonable steps to mitigate viruses and so on, there no defining reason to change. (I know you wont agree with me on that one!).

Happy Christmas :-)

  Chegs ®™ 04:13 23 Dec 2006

I see no particular reason to adopt Vista,but I said the same about XP.I will continue to use XP as its able to do everything I need a PC for until Microsoft cease support for it.By then,I'll probably have mastered linux and will use that for internet activities and the XP install will be for gaming.Or I might even have realised theres a different life out there to my present one which revolves around the PC and resume fishing/flying my models or even walking the dog. :)

  Forum Editor 07:33 23 Dec 2006

This is how many people view Vista, and understandably so. The truth is rather different however, and once you've used Visa it's unlikely that you'll want to revert to Windows XP.

There are many new features in Vista, and it may be worth taking a look before you finally decide to "wait and see, probably for a long time."

click here for an overview.

  octal 08:15 23 Dec 2006

Sorry FE, I'm trying really hard to see the advantages over what I'm using at the moment that would make me want to change back to Windows Vista by viewing the overview in your link. The only interesting feature seems to be the 3D navigation system, which looks to be a bit of a gimmick and doesn't really add anything to the productivity of using the system, all the other features I seem to already have on my present system, Xandros Linux. It might be that the overview has been poorly presented by Microsoft, which I hardly imagine, or there isn't really much ground breaking stuff in Vista that would tempt people like me.

I do use Windows XP at work, it's OK, it works, but frankly it doesn't really do anymore than what I can do on my system at home here at a fraction of the cost. I'm not bashing Microsoft at all because I like most of the Microsoft products because I use them extensively, that's why I took the ECDL in using them, so it's purely an observation.

  Forum Editor 08:58 23 Dec 2006

Everyone has to make his/her decision, based on the various factors which influence this kind of upgrade. In the main I believe Vista will penetrate the market via the computer manufacturers (all of whom will preinstall Vista by default), and via those early adopters, as I've already stated.

The word will spread once those people have started using Vista, and it's that feedback - or lack thereof- which will drive the second wave of Vista sales in the retail market. I was recently in New York, and talking to some clients there revealed the fact that they are seriously thinking of rolling Vista out onto their corporate network - their beta evaluation tells them that the software is likely to give them a safer working environment. Their attitude may or may not be indicative of a trend in thinking, and it certainly surprised me; very few corporate network administrators would normally consider such a plan, so early on in an operating system's life.

The first few months after the Vista launch are going to be very important to Microsoft, they need lots of positive feedback if they are to move the planet into a Vista environment. We'll all be watching to see what happens, and no doubt we'll be analysing Vista's performance in some detail over the coming months.

  anskyber 10:08 23 Dec 2006

Wisely or otherwise I shall migrate to Vista at some point (in 2007). I like what I see.

The black hole is drivers. Kate B's experience in the Vista forum is interesting, albeit the experience of one person. I have trawled the web sites for software and hardware manufacturers which are relevant to my machine and things are rather quiet. The launch of Vista should be seismic and the computer industry should be waving flags saying,

"look at us we can run on Vista and here is how you use our products"

As a consumer the reaction of the computer community as I have experienced it leaves me feeling rather....alone. So my interest in Vista, although strong, is tempered significantly by the silence out there.

Still I can always post in the Vista forum when things resemble a pear!

  Forum Editor 10:17 23 Dec 2006

Yes, you can.

Bear in mind the fact that the final Vista version will have a considerably bigger driver database than that which was in the pubic beta. hardware manufacturers will have written drivers for the devices they see as worth supporting, and it's always worth trying a Windows XP driver if you're stuck.

My own Vista installation went very well, Vista picked up all my hardware devices and had drivers for the lot. That won't be everyone's experience, and that's why we'll be running the Vista forum for some time yet - I'm sure there will be lots of driver-related queries.

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