China's IT market growth will be less than 7% in 2013, against the backdrop of a subpar projected real GDP growth at 7.5% for the country in the same period, said Forrester recently.
According to Forrester analyst Andrew Bartels, CIOs in China need to consider whether and how much to slow the breakneck pace of their tech buying in the face of tightening bank lending and other signs of a Chinese economy that can't decide whether to grow at 9% or at 6%.
"By 2014, China -- and also India -- should start to improve, offsetting slower growth in Japan, resulting in growth of 5.1% in local currencies and 3.7% in US dollars, "he noted.
The advisory firm also predicted the slow growth in China and India will hamper Asia Pacific IT market's growth rate of 4.3% this year in local currency terms.
Though the slowdown is offset by improvements in Australia, Japan, and South Korea, the research company added that the projected sharp drop in the value of the yen against the US dollar could mean that the Asia Pacific tech market will decline by 3.2% when measured in US dollars.
Globally, Forrester estimated a 2.3% growth in ICT spending (in dollars) in 2013 -- down from the 3.3% forecast in January -- and stronger growth of 5.4% in 2014.
The continued recession in Europe and slowing growth in China will offset improvements in the US, Japan, and some emerging markets, said Forrester, adding that the strong US dollar is keeping US dollar growth rates two percentage points or so below those in local currencies.
CIOs will focus their biggest spending increases on software, where growth globally will be 5.7% (in local currency terms) in 2013 and 7.3% in 2014, Forrester estimated.