What are the chances of a soft brexit?

  oresome 19:47 03 May 2017
Locked

There seems to have been quite a lot of posturing over the last week or so and the starting positions seem to be poles apart.

As this continues, it will be ever more difficult for either side to climb down and attitudes will harden.

My own feeling is that there isn't a cat in hells chance of reaching a satisfactory conclusion within 2 years and a hard brexit is odds on favourite.

  hssutton 19:57 03 May 2017

I have my doubts that we will still be part of the EU before the year is out. Probably a lot depends on the outcome of the GE. A landslide for TM could well be the catalyst.

  wee eddie 21:06 03 May 2017

As there is no real definition of either 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit, I think that I can safely say that in 18 months time we will still be a Member of the EU.

They will then use that 'old' European Custom and "Stop the Clock" while they come to an Interim Agreement

  Forum Editor 22:47 03 May 2017

"...the starting positions seem to be poles apart."

Of course they do, and as any negotiator knows that's how it should be. It leaves plenty of room for concessions by both parties, and the EU hierarchy has a reputation for compromise.

I remain optimistic. We are going to leave the EU - that is not in doubt. What we want to do is leave with some kind of trading deal, and what the EU negotiators want is for us to pay as much as possible before we go. Something has to move, and in my view the movement will happen on both sides.

There's a way to go before it all comes to a conclusion but like an aircraft that has taken off, we must land eventually... and we will.

  lotvic 23:48 03 May 2017

I hope it's not a crash landing...

  wee eddie 01:38 04 May 2017

As every negotiator knows, to reach a conclusion you have to give away some of your chosen goodies to retain other, hopefully more important items.

It must be a really difficult job when you have a disonent choir bleeting in the background

  wee eddie 01:53 04 May 2017

Please, for 'disonent', read 'discordant' .

Spellchecker problem

  Quickbeam 07:33 04 May 2017

"What are the chances of a soft brexit?" I'll interpret that as 'what are the chances of an acceptable Brexit'?

I believe that less than 10% of us will consider the final deal to be acceptable such is the breadth of views over Brexit and the scale of the uber expectation placed on Brexit!

  Quickbeam 07:39 04 May 2017

wee eddie To quote Asterix the Gaul from about 40 years ago regarding a cartoon that was topical at the time of joining the EEC... "We'll never be in concord over this"!

  Quickbeam 07:44 04 May 2017

hssutton If we are no longer part of the EU before the year is out, May will have failed so badley in her negotiations with the EU that it will very much be a case of us being cut adrift on a rip tide.

I never expected that I might say this, but I honestly believe that Corbyn would negotiate for us more favourably than May can. May has simply started of with an incredibly extreme arrogance that has just pissed the EU off with totally. She's certainly not in the same league as Thatcher or Merkel.

  Quickbeam 07:45 04 May 2017

...badly.

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