Is war between the west and Iran inevitable?

  Flak999 22:26 04 Dec 2011

Storm clouds are gathering in the east! Once again it seems inevitable that the west will soon become embroiled in another foreign adventure. Following the sacking last week of the British embassy in Tehran and the closure of the Iranian embassy in London, we seem set upon the inevitable path of conflict with another middle eastern state.

The turmoil that has beset this region continues unabated, it seems from the latest polls that the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt will be the largest party. The upheaval in Syria grows day by day, Assad warned the west "be careful what you wish for." The Arab spring is taking us down the much feared road to Armageddon.

Following the report from the IAEA which pointed to the likelihood of a military application of Iran's nuclear program, we are led to the only possible conclusion, that Israel with the covert or as seems more likely the overt support of the USA will strike Iran's nuclear facilities to stop the development of Iran's nuclear weapons.

Where will this leave us in Britain? We are a firm ally of the US and it would seem likely that we will be drawn into the conflict. How many millions of pounds and how many hundreds possibly thousands of British lives will we have to commit to this perhaps the last of our foreign expeditions?

The retaliation of the Iranians will be to close the straits of Hormuz to the transit of western oil imports, oil prices will rise to astronomical levels and our already fragile economies will implode. Iranian state sponsored terrorism will be visited upon our western cities, is this the beginning of the end game between the west and militant Islam?

  badgery 22:57 04 Dec 2011


You really must curb this natural optimism of yours.

  Flak999 23:05 04 Dec 2011


Sorry, but it's difficult to see anything to be optimistic about with this one!

  Forum Editor 23:16 04 Dec 2011

"The Arab spring is taking us down the much feared road to Armageddon."

Actually, it's probably taking us down the road to a new era of relationships with new democracies. Nothing will happen overnight, and no doubt the process will bring with it the inevitable round of power vacuum disputes, but in the end there will be a new group of strong, independent democratic countries. Your dramatic doom and gloom scenario isn't going to result in our downfall.

Iran is unlikely to be able to develop a nuclear weapon for at least a couple of years, if it decides to develop one at all, so there's no immediate need to panic just yet. According to the latest IAEA report, Iran has produced over 4,500 kilos of 3.5% Low Enriched Uranium, of which about 70 kilos has been further enriched to 20%. That's about 17% of the amount needed to make a first nuclear weapon. The entire stockpile of 3.5% LEU is probably enough for at least two weapons if it's enriched further. 

Taking a worst case scenario, Iran could probably make a single nuclear weapon in about two years if the government allocated the project a top priority. That gives the west a negotiation window, and we should strain every diplomatic muscle in the attempt.

Talk of British military involvement in an Iran conflict is ridiculously premature.

  lotvic 23:25 04 Dec 2011

Thank goodness 'tis the season of goodwill.

  Flak999 23:37 04 Dec 2011

Forum Editor

Talk of British military involvement in an Iran conflict is ridiculously premature.

I wish I had your capacity for foresight! However I think that the Israeli's under Netanyahu are following a different timescale. The Iranians are going through their own internal power struggle, but Ahmadinejad is without doubt a competitor to take on the mantel left by Hitler as the most deranged but dangerous megalomaniac the world has seen for seventy years.

We, all of us underestimate him and the Iranian Islamists at our peril!

  zzzz999 07:25 05 Dec 2011

Jings lads, don't fall for the nonsense; we were lied to about Iraq and we will be lied to about Iran. The IAEA report is a disgraceful sham and has been ridiculed by many.

  zzzz999 08:26 05 Dec 2011

Fourm member yet again I will ask you to keep your personal remarks to yourself - I find it insulting to have the tory central office apologist on the board talk to me of bias.

However, this guy has much more credibility to talk on the issue

  interzone55 08:32 05 Dec 2011

As soon as Israel find where the enrichment is taking place, you can be fairly sure the US will find a live target for their new toy

  daz60 09:16 05 Dec 2011

Ratcheting up the pressure by using incendiary language is all part of the diplomatic merry go round that is the Middle East.There are some who wish to settle old scores and actively encourage a war, they should be considered as "deranged" as Ahmadinejad.

Iran and the West have been at war for years more often by using proxies rather than head to head. At some stage, now that the USA has acquired Iraq in all but name, the likelihood of some kind of military action is possible but the ramifications would be catastrophic for everyone concerned.

Interesting how Brzezinski stated that Iran would have to "fly over our airspace",a reference to Iraq/Afghanistan as if either had no say on the matter.

  Flak999 09:42 05 Dec 2011


Interesting how Brzezinski stated that Iran would have to "fly over our airspace",a reference to Iraq/Afghanistan as if either had no say on the matter.

I think you mean Israel would have to fly over Iraq? I to was struck by his use of these words. "Our airspace" obviously the Iraq's have no say in the matter!

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