Strange how statistics work

  pj123 16:09 30 Jan 2007

Camelot say that 1 in 4 Jackpots are won by Syndicates. That means that 3 in 4 Jackpots are won by people who are not in a Syndicate and do not have to share their winnings with anyone else.

I say this because I have seen many adverts, emails etc saying join this syndicate or that syndicate to increase your chances of winning the the Jackpot.

I run a Syndicate with 28 members (since the very first draw) and although we have had many wins none of them have been the jackpot. We do a perm of any 6 from 8 numbers (28 tickets). If we get three numbers correct we have 10 tickets with 3 numbers which = £100.

Yet someone (remember Lottery Lout) can buy their first ticket as a lucky dip and win £9,000,000.

  johndrew 16:55 30 Jan 2007

`Strange how statistics work`

Statistically you stand as much chance of winning with the first ticket you buy as any other, What makes the difference is that old intangible called `luck`. Now if only I had some ........

  Forum Editor 17:09 30 Jan 2007

Except that with lots of tickets you have lots of 'same chances of winning'.

Buy half a million tickets and you have half a million single chances of winning. Buy one ticket and you have one chance.

  Mr Mistoffelees 18:45 30 Jan 2007

It's not strange, it's just that statistics are very versatile, they can work any way you like. It just depends on what you want to prove!

  spuds 19:57 30 Jan 2007

A friend of mine purchased £500.00 worth of premium bonds when they first started, I purchased £100.00 worth. He as had many wins, I have had none. Statistics!!.

I often wonder about the 'Lucky Dip', and how random or perhaps winning those numbers are?.

  johndrew 20:17 30 Jan 2007

Yes. But each ticket stands an equal chance of winning. All you are doing is providing a greater target.

Look at it another way. If you add all the tickets purchased for a draw together and own the lot, you will win but you will not get back more than you paid (in fact you are guaranteed to lose on the deal). The only way to `win` is to trust to `luck` that the ticket you purchased, or one of them, is a `winner` and is `hit` by the draw in a manner (level of prize) that is greater than your outlay.

If you want to gamble `safely` the only way I`m aware of is Premium Bonds where all(?) you lose is any interest you may have got from investing the funds and inflation. Again this may be offset or overtaken if you win.

  Totally-braindead 20:24 30 Jan 2007


There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch.

Its a gamble and I recall when the lottery started it was remarked that you had a better chance of being struck by lightning than of winning the lottery. Not sure if that is true but it did make you realise you had little chance of winning.
I have done the Saturday draw only for the past 4 years and not even won a tenner. If I had saved the money I would have £208.

  Forum Editor 20:31 30 Jan 2007

Yes, I'm not arguing with your logic, merely pointing out that the greater the number of tickets you buy, the greater the number of winning opportunities.

  Bingalau 20:57 30 Jan 2007

I'm always amazed by how gullible people are when buying raffle tickets in our club. They think that getting five tickets for a pound is better than getting one for a pound. But because everyone else is also buying tickets at the same rate. I maintain it makes no difference to their chance of winning the first prize. ..Bingalau..

  Totally-braindead 01:18 31 Jan 2007

Bingalau of course you have a better chance if you get five tickets for a pound, you have 5 times as many tickets so of course you have a better chance to win.

Just because theres five times as many tickets in the box to be picked from is neither hear nor there.

I'm not serious by the way. I think its a psycholical thing you feel that you have a better chance of winning, if you stopped to think about it you would realise this is not the case.
Sorry about the spelling by the way.

  PalaeoBill 07:41 31 Jan 2007

If you are in a syndicate with 28 people then you have 27 more chances of winning than if you were not. The payout will have to be shared but you only pay 1/28th of the stake.
To say that 1 in 4 jackpots are won by syndicates is meaningless without knowing how many tickets are sold to individuals and how many to syndicates. Only then could you calculate, statistically, which option has the better chance of winning.
E.g. If there were only ten thousand syndicates and 16 million individuals and the syndicates won 1 in 4 jackpots, those would be very good odds.

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