Before I came back from the far east in June both Vista and Office 2007 were readily available in the markets in Bangkok, Vientienne and Ho CHi Minh City for less than £2 each. Some of my colleagues out there used them at home without problems but most still use XP and 2003 not because they can't get the newer versions but because they don't have the money to upgrade their PC's. Pirate software is so cheap out there but you still need the hardware which is often beyond the reach of the average worker. People even copy the pirated copies for friends.
Once this hardware problem is overcome Microsoft might find itself in a similar ballgame to XP especially if the new Win 7 only needs the same level of hardware as Vista.
Time will tell but I suspect that we will have different levels of piracy in different countries all round the world, just like today.