Here We Go Again.

  morddwyd 08:47 01 Feb 2011
Locked

I see that Obama and the British leader are appealing for an orderly transition to democracy in Egypt.

Have they learned nothing from Iraq and Afghanistan?

In most Islamic countries, particularly Arab ones, democracy is, at present, a non-starter. An iron fist in a chain mail glove is a normal method of government.

Change may come, or certainly will come, eventually, but at their own pace, and certainly not at the behest of outsiders.

It took the UK a thousand years after Magna Carta to achieve something like universal suffrage, and most, but by no means all, Arab countries are not yet even at Magna Carta stage.

My own personal view is that any change in Egypt will likely lead to an Islamic state,m which will spread and further destabilize the whole region.

Like I said, just my own personal view, which I've no doubt many will disagree with.

  Legolas 08:56 01 Feb 2011

I know we are trying to look into the future and make an educated guess but I agree with morddwyd. I too think the vacuum left has a very good chance of being filled with a radical Isalamic state. And to look even further into the future this 'people power' is dangerous in that it leaves an open door for Islamic extremists to take greater control of overthrown governments.

  GANDALF <|:-)> 10:23 01 Feb 2011

I'm sure that I must be wrong but wasn't the USA giving military and economic aid to Mubarak until very recently? The irony of that utterly dense woman Clinton's speech two days ago did not fly past me.

G

  GANDALF <|:-)> 10:35 01 Feb 2011

'I too think the vacuum left has a very good chance of being filled with a radical Isalamic state'...the current Government's record on extreme actions and embracing autocracy leaves a little bit to be desired. This is why the people are getting rather agitated as they consider the current Government to be rather extreme.

'Have they learned nothing from Iraq and Afghanistan?'...not whilst we have people in charge who seem to think that 'winning hearts and minds' is easy and feasible and think that the people actually want us there, in their lands. They know little of the embedded attitudes in those countries in spite of many in the UK thinking that they must do as they have access to the 'best advisers' and will only ensure that many more of our soldiers will be killed and maimed as well as thousands of their citizens.

We are on an expensive hiding to nothing in both countries.

G

  peter99co 11:04 01 Feb 2011
  spuds 11:43 01 Feb 2011

There doesn't seem to be much interest from the Russians yet, on the state of affairs in Egypt.

Many of the top engineers and technical people were or had been trained via Russian help. Perhaps Russia's past involvements and experiences in other Arabic and Muslin countries, have persuaded them to keep out of this recent conflict and disturbance?.

The same might be said about China?.

America and the UK were (are) great friends of many world-wide rulers or leaders, but it doesn't take all that long for the friendship to sour, especially when oil and other rich commodities are balancing on the scales?.

  jakimo 11:57 01 Feb 2011

'Egypt will likely lead to an Islamic state, which will spread and further destabilize the whole region.'

The agenda is to spread much further than just the Arab regions,as those who have lived amoungst them well know

  morddwyd 19:51 01 Feb 2011

"wasn't the USA giving military and economic aid to Mubarak until very recently?"

Of course it was, and who supported Saddam with millions of dollars worth of arms to use against Iran in the 80s?

  wiz-king 13:51 02 Feb 2011

Pre-emptive move from Yemen? click here

  Paddy 01:17 04 Feb 2011

This bears thinking about, If (as is being advocated by all of the smart 'know alls') Egypt becomes a democratic state, what happens if they hold free elections and a Radical Islamic party is returned to power?

Remember Germany pre WW2 was a so called democracy and the majority voted for Adolf Hitler.

This is very dangerous ground, anyway who decides what is an acceptable regime.

What would you say if a foreign power decided that the UK governing party was undesirable and should be changed?

Like I said 'very dangerous ground.
PM

  Forum Editor 01:50 04 Feb 2011

agree that there's a danger of religious fundamentalists making a bid in the inevitable power vacuum that would exist when Mubarak stands down. Israel in particular has good cause to fear this situation developing.

I don't think it's fair to pillory western leaders for declaring in favour of a democratic Egyptian state - they are bound to do so, and anyone who thinks they can't see the real dangers of destabilisation in the region is making a grave error of judgement. Western leaders know only too well what can happen in a country when a long-running dictatorship ends suddenly. Egypt has thirty years of bottled up tension in its society, and nobody should forget that the country has existed under what has euphemistically been called a 'state of emergency' since 1981.

The Muslim Botherhood party will undoubtedly make a strong bid for power in Egypt when the moment comes, and that's what worries the Western leaders.

Heightened states of alert all round would be my guess.

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