CBI predicts 'even slower growth'

  barca1 01:48 25 Mar 2008

How is it these predictions are nearly always correct..?

click here

  spuds 12:14 25 Mar 2008

Last year there was a finance program on the television, in the main it was discussing forecasts set by analysts. The presenter of the program ended up throwing the analysts 'bible' into the Thames. That action said a lot for predictions.

  anskyber 12:22 25 Mar 2008

I am reading an interesting book at the moment called "Irrationality" by Stuart Sutherland a past Prof of Psychology.

He makes the obvious point that predictions, and therefore rational behaviour, is based upon the flawed conclusion the the future will reflect our experiences of the past. There is no room for change in predictive modelling because we have not yet experienced an event which could alter the future.

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