Most recently, unnamed sources told The Wall Street Journal that "hundreds of thousands" of iPads have sold since pre-orders began on March 12, and one source thinks the iPad's three-month sales will outdo the iPhone. But hold on: a bookie (no, seriously) gives only a 28 percent chance of the iPad beating the iPhone to one million units sold.
I don't really care for those predictions. Here are a few reasons why.
The iPad is not the iPhone
Yes, the apples and oranges argument. An Apple iPhone requires a long-term contract and fits in your pocket. An iPad doesn't require any monthly service and doesn't need to leave the house if you don't want it to. These are totally different products.
2010 is not 2007
Even if the iPad was a comparable product to the iPhone, which it isn't, comparisons between product launches that are three years apart shouldn't be taken too seriously. Markets grow. That's kind of the whole point of this capitalism thing that companies like Apple are founded on.
I'll only revise my position if someone can systematically account for the way people have embraced touchscreens, apps and mobile broadband over the past three years.
Who cares anyway?
Off the top of my head, I can't tell you the number of iPhones sold to date (okay, over 42 million if you add up this chart). I can tell you that people line up outside the Apple Store to get the latest model, that I see iPhones everywhere, and that third-party developers love the app store despite the way Apple treats them.
If all that anecdotal evidence proves true for the iPad, then the product will be a success. Of course, sales figures are important in the long run, but quibbling over tens of thousands of units is not.