Businesses should complete planning for an influenza pandemic by the second quarter of next year, according to recommendations from research firm Gartner. In particular, they should stock up on supplies that would be needed by data-centre workers.

Among the suggestions offered on Wednesday by a Gartner analyst at the firm's data-centre conference in Las Vegas: store 42 gallons of water per worker – enough for a six-week quarantine – and don't forget food, medical care, cooking facilities, sanitation issues and electricity.

In a quarantined environment "you are not going anywhere", said Gartner analyst Ken McGee. As well as ensuring that their own operations continue during such a pandemic, IT managers should also review the contingency plans of their vendors, he added.

Vendor contracts should include service guarantees and "extraordinarily harsh terms if that vendor does not come through", McGee said.

Among those in the audience during McGee's presentation at the conference was John Stingl, chief technology officer at Russell Investment Group. During the presentation, McGee said later, he sent a note on his handheld to his administrative assistant to arrange a meeting back at his office about his company's pandemic-specific planning.

Stingl said his company has a good disaster recovery and business continuity plan. But after hearing McGee's stark warning, he wants to know more about his firm's plans for a pandemic. "It was an eye-opener," Stingl said of the presentation.

McGee did not tell attendees that a pandemic is in the offing. But pandemics are regular occurrences in human history, and while it is unknown whether avian influenza will explode into global pandemic, the number of deaths related to it are creeping up – and more appear possible as the disease spreads. "The point is [that] the degree of transmission seems to be increasing from human to human," he said.

Brad Kowal, associate director of the data centre at Shands HealthCare in Gainesville, Florida, said his medical centre has had its hands full dealing with business continuity planning aimed at protecting against hurricanes. "And then you throw this in, and are told to get it done by Q2. It's literally stun and shock for me," he said.

McGee said pandemic planning costs should total no more than five percent of an IT budget and stressed that the burden shouldn't be absorbed by the IT budget alone. It should be shared throughout a company, he added.

Among the things companies should do, McGee said, is decide whether they intend to keep their data centres operating during a pandemic, and then, if they plan to keep operations going, consider planning for up to a 12-week quarantine.

Gartner recommends that companies conduct educational sessions with employees so that they know how to prepare their family households. In the enterprise, one person should be designated for planning, and business continuity plans will have to be adapted for a pandemic. IT should oversee installation of broadband services to its most critical employees but also assume that there may be failures in public networks.

One person in attendance, who said he works at a Fortune 100 insurance company and asked to remain anonymous, said his company has taken pandemic planning seriously. "We have almost 30,000 employees, and fully a third of them in the next six months will be able to work remotely," he said.

Near the end of McGee's presentation, an electronic survey asked attendees whether they believe a bird flu pandemic will take place in three years. Fifty-eight percent said yes, 25 percent no and 17 percent were not sure.